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Andrea Beccaro

Mediterranean Security Update

4/30/2017

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Iraq. Whereas the battle in Mosul continues, ISIS has controlled a highway between Iraq and Jordan, planting landmines and explosives. In Anbar province ISIS still controls areas and is able to carry out attacks. On 26th Iraqi paramilitary forces have captured Hatra, a 2,000-year-old historical site near the northern city of Mosul, where U.S.-backed forces have been battling ISIS for months. A key actor in the fight against ISIS is the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—over 60,000 Shia fighters who stepped in to secure Iraq after state forces collapsed in 2014.
Turkey. On 25th Turkish warplanes struck Kurdish militant positions in Iraq and Syria in an operation meant to disrupt the rebels’ supply lines and prevent them from infiltrating Turkey. The airstrikes were Turkey’s first in Syria since it ended a land incursion against Kurdish militants and Islamic State there in March. The military said the attacks centered on Mount Sinjar in Iraq and Mount Karakoc in Syria, south of Turkey’s shared borders with both countries. Although the United States and Russia were informed of the attack, it caused concerns in Washington because it was not coordinated and caused victims among partner forces. Moreover, Turkey is worried about the collaboration between Russian and American forces with Kurds
Syria. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) penetrated ISIS’s bastion of Tabqa in northern Syria on 24th, overrunning territory in the town’s south. The SDF entered Tabqa for the first time after besieging it from all sides. On 27th Israeli air strikes have hit an arms depot operated by the Lebanese Hezbollah group near Damascus airport. Israeli Intelligence Minister Israel Katz confirmed the attack saying that it “corresponds completely with Israel’s policy to act to prevent Iran’s smuggling of advanced weapons via Syria to Hezbollah”. A similar operation was carried out on January 13 when Israel targeted the Mezze military airbase.
Russia. A Russian navy spy ship sank on 27th in the Black Sea off the coast of Turkey after hitting another vessel, but coastguards rescued all of its crew. The Liman was a former research ship re-fitted as an intelligence vessel. Turkish media said the area where the ships collided was shrouded in thick fog at the time, suggesting that the incident was accidental. The Lima has taken part in Russian operation in Syria and in monitoring NATO forces in the area.
Tunisia. The southeastern Tataouine province on 27th was paralyses by a general strike held in response to perceived government foot-dragging in providing residents with job opportunities. This is not the first of such protests in the province and in the country due to high rate of unemployment.
Egypt. On 28th Pope Francis visited Egypt. The visit happened in a volatile situation due to two bloody attacks that killed scores of Egyptian Christian Coptic two weeks ago. However, the visit is seen as an opportunity to promote better relations between Christians and Muslims.

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Mediterranean Security Update

4/23/2017

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Israel. A rocket fired from Sinai landed on a greenhouse in southern Israel near the Gaza border hours after Israel closed its border with Egypt due to security concerns after the bombings of two Coptic churches. No injuries were reported, but a greenhouse was heavily damaged.
Egypt. After the bombings of the churches, security forces have killed seven suspected Islamic State group members hiding in the southern province of the country. On 20th US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi pledging support. The brief visit came after Sisi met President Trump in the White House earlier this month. Sisi’s visit marked a shift in relations after Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama had given the Egyptian leader the cold shoulder for leading the military overthrow of Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013.
Libya. Forces aligned with the UN-backed government said that three of their men have been killed in air raids against the air base of Tamanhent by rivals allied with eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar. Clashes in the south have continued for days souring the relationships between government in Tripoli and Haftar. As a result it seems that the war in Libya is festering; however, the partitioning of Libya is not the best possible solution.
Turkey. Turkish citizens voted on 16th in a referendum that deeply changes how Turkey is governed by significantly expanding the powers of the country’s presidential office. The “Yes” won with 51.4 percent of the vote; however, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) demanded a recount, citing voting irregularities. The new constitutional changes transform Turkey’s governance from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency, significantly expanding the powers of the top office. The result gives the president to be elected in 2019 new powers to appoint vice-presidents, ministers, high-level officials, and senior judges. It will also allow the president to dissolve parliament, issue executive decrees, and impose states of emergency. The constitutional changes are backed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP).
Morocco. After six months Morocco has a new Cabinet and prime minister. Moreover, Morocco’s security forces dismantled a suspected terrorist cell linked to the Islamic State. The members of this cell intensified their recruitment and the sending of Moroccan volunteers to both Syria and Iraq. Furthermore, Moroccan and US forces are among nearly 1,300 troops from across the world taking part in a major military exercise in southern Morocco known as African Lion 2017. It includes land, air and naval elements. They are led by the Marine Corps Forces Europe and Africa and sponsored by the US Africa Command.
Syria. On 17th a large blast has killed at least 126 people in an attack near buses carrying Syrians evacuated from two besieged government-held towns in Idlib province.
Iraq. Islamic State militants fired a rocket loaded with chlorine in a newly-liberated al-Abar neighborhood in western Mosul on 14th. Iraqi forces launched a new attack on the ISIS in Mosul on 17th with federal police advancing 200 meters in house-to-house fighting in the Old City.

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Mediterranean Security Update

4/10/2017

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Jordan. Britain will send military trainers to Jordan to help the country’s air force in the fight against ISIS. Prime Minister Theresa May set out measures to boost cooperation between the UK and Jordan on a three-day trip to the Middle East during which she visited Saudi Arabia too. Jordan seems to be an island of stability in the region, yet its disaffected, underemployed youth are acutely vulnerable to militancy.
Egypt. Egypt’s military said Abu Anas al-Ansari, a founder of a militant faction in North Sinai linked to ISIS, was killed in an airstrike. On 3rd April President Trump welcomed Egyptian President General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to the White House. The meeting was successful and marked a stark contrast between Obama and Trump Administration toward al-Sisi and Egypt. On 9th two explosions occurred killing 27 people inside a church in the Egyptian Nile Delta city of Tanta, and 16 people in front of a church in Alexandria. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant claimed responsibility for both attacks. As a consequence, President el-Sisi says a three-month state of emergency will be imposed expanding police powers of arrest, surveillance and seizures and limiting freedom of movement.
Iran. Tehran’s Culture Minister Reza Amir Salehi has visited Tunisia and Algeria in order to foster cultural cooperation and the achievement of regional stability. However, Iranian media said that Tunisian President, Béji Kaid Essebsi, praised Iran for protecting the Islamic world against Israel and that an agreement was signed between Algiers and Tehran to confront “Takfir throughout the region”. Both statements have been rejected by Tunisia and Algeria.
Russia. The role of Russia in North Africa is increasingly under scrutiny. Meanwhile reports suggest that there are disagreements between Iran and Russia over which strategy to pursue in Syria. Moreover, Russia will expand and reinforce its naval base in Tartus, Syria, allowing it to increase its capabilities to receive large submarines and warships.
Syria. On 4th it was reported a chemical attack in the city of Idlib that killed dozens of people. Russia said in a statement that the Syrian government wasn’t to blame for the attack, and that a rebel terrorist warehouse was hit by a conventional airstrike from Syria’s military, causing the release of the toxic substances in the area. Moreover, Russia has rejected a push by U.S., France, and Britain in the Security Council. Although the responsibility of the attack has not been completely unraveled so far, President Trump ordered on 7th a missile strike against a Syrian air base. Russia called the attack an act of aggression and announced several measures aimed at improving the Syrian air defense system.
Iraq. While the fighting in Mosul continues, the U.S. are planning to stay in Iraq and they are very interested in the Qayyara area, south of Mosul in the Ninevah governorate, which is seen as a possible US alternative to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base.
Libya. On 5th April LNA (Libyan National Army, the forces loyal to General Haftar) launched an attack against the military base near the city of Sabha. It is the more important military base in the South-Est of Libya where the Third Militia, which is loyal to Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, is based. The attack was launched on the grounds that the base was a launching pad for rival fighters who seized key oil terminals last month.

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Mediterranean Security Update

4/2/2017

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Iraq. Iraqi forces renewed their assault in west Mosul on Monday, 27th, advancing on the southwestern axis of the Old City. While the defeat of ISIS in Mosul appears to be a matter of time, the problem of Shia militias in Iraq remains one of the major security concerns. Meanwhile, Ayad al-Jumaili, arguably ISIS’ vice-commandant, has been killed in Iraqi air strikes near the Syrian border.
Syria. Syrian state TV said another group of rebels with their families are leaving the last opposition-held neighborhood in the central city of Homs under a Russia-brokered deal with the Damascus government. State TV said the round of evacuations from al-Waer neighborhood is the second one so far and involves 466 people—including 129 fighters. United States, Russia, Syrian army, Syrian opposition groups, Kurds are all gathering to launch the final assault to Raqqa; however, political and military problem are looming. Moreover, the conflict has crucially and irreparably changed local politics in Syria, and a return to the pre-2011 status quo is impossible. For any negotiated settlement to be sustainable, these changes will need to be incorporated into a new, decentralized power-sharing bargain. The U.N. envoy for Syria wrapped up a fifth round of talks between opposition leaders and the government on 1st April, pointing to “incremental” progress while acknowledging no peace deal is foreseeable.
Egypt. Six years after his ouster, Egypt’s ex-President Hosni Mubarak has been released from detention. By the end of 2017 the first batch of the Russian Ka-52 reconnaissance/attack helicopters would be delivered. As a result Egypt will improve its combat capabilities and strengthen its relationship with Russia.
Morocco. Morocco has a new government, finally. The formation of a new coalition brings to an end uncertainty which began when the Islamist Justice and Development Party, PJD, won the most seats in parliamentary elections in October 2016 but fell short of an outright majority.
Israel. Hamas has launched a manhunt in the Gaza Strip following the mysterious killing of one its military commanders, Mazen Faqha, which the group says was carried out by Israeli sniper. 
Turkey. Turkey has officially ended the Euphrates Shield military operation it launched in Syria last August. The operation involved troops, tanks and warplanes in order to support Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, push ISIL fighters away from Turkish border and stop the advance of Kurdish militia fighters. The Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that “Operation Euphrates Shield has been successful and is finished. Any operation following this one will have a different name”.
Libya. Political and security situation in Libya remains very volatile. UNSMIL, the United Nations mission in Libya, has said that 20 civilians were killed and 4 others were wounded in last March due to hostilities across the country.

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    Andrea Beccaro Blog

    My blog to share news related to International Politics and Security in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, the blog is also a tool to suggest books on terrorism, warfare, strategy, military history, political thought.

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