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Andrea Beccaro

Mediterranean Security Update

5/23/2017

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Syria. On 15th a pair of car bombs has killed at least six people and wounded several others in a refugee camp near the border with Jordan. The car bombs came just hours after air raids hit a Syrian border town in the eastern province of Deir Az Zor and killed at least 30 people. On 16th a new round of Syria peace talks opened in Geneva. Five previous rounds of UN-backed negotiations have failed to yield concrete results and hopes for a major breakthrough remain dim. On 21st the Syrian regime regained total control of the central city of Homs with the Russian-supervised evacuation of rebels from the last area they had controlled.
Libya. On 15th the Ambassador of the Netherlands, Eric Strating, met Khalifa Haftar and then Aqilah Saleh, whereas the Spanish government appointed Francisco de Miguel as the new Ambassador to Libya serving from the embassy’s office in Tunisia. On 17th Egyptian Army Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Mahmoud Hegazy, met the leader of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, in the Libyan port city of Benghazi. They discussed the recent developments in the Libyan situation as well as the efforts to promote a political dialogue between the North African country’s warring factions. On 18th the Third Force attacked the southern base of Brak Al-Shati, which they had previously ceded to an opposing faction aligned with the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA). Arguably the attack was not ordered by internationally recognized government. Moreover, the new French president, Emmanuel Macron, seems to be reviewing its position on the Libyan conflict and for the first time openly called for a united national army to battle Islamist militants. On 20th President Fayaz Sirraj and US President Donald Trump held a meeting on the sidelines of Arab-Islamic-American Summit in Riyadh discussing the fight against terrorism. In a separate meeting Sirraj spoke with US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, who reiterated his country’s support for an inclusive solution that brings stability again to Libya.

Trump. President Trump is visiting various states in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia will try to gain influence. President Trump set out from Washington on 19th for the nine-day trip which includes stops in Saudi Arabia, and the Vatican where he will meet with Pope Francis. Then he moves on to Brussels to meet NATO leaders an then the G7 meeting of world economic powers in Sicily.
Algeria. On 4th Algerians voted for a new parliament but candidates have found a public disillusioned by an opaque political system and the government’s failure to keep its promises. Moreover, Algeria is considered particularly vulnerable in North Africa, with fears of a return to the instability due to the low global oil prices experienced since mid-2014. Oil and gas account for 95% of Algerian exports and some 60% of government revenues.
Iran. Iranians are voting a presidential election, in which Hassan Rouhani won a second term. Mr Rouhani, 68, a moderate cleric who negotiated a landmark nuclear deal with world powers in 2015, was standing against three other candidates among which Ebrahim Raisi, an hardline cleric. More than 54 million people were eligible to vote in the election. Here an interview to prof. Morris Mottale, Franklin College, on the election.
Iraq. On 18th Syrian President, Bashar Al-Assad, received Iraqi National Security Adviser, Faleh Al-Fayad, to discuss military cooperation between the two countries. It was stressed the importance of continuing to strengthen the existing military cooperation between Syria and Iraq, especially in their fight against ISIS along their shared border. On 19th more than 50 people have been killed in a string of suicide car bomb attacks in Iraq’s capital and the southern province of Basra.

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Mediterranean Security Update

5/13/2017

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Syria. Syrian rebels and their families began evacuating from a district of the capital Damascus for the first time on 8th, bringing the government closer to recapturing the entire city. The deal to evacuate Barzeh district mirrors similar agreements for opposition-held territory elsewhere in the country, allowing fighters safe passage in exchange for surrender. On 11th the US-backed alliance of Syrian Kurdish and Arab fighters has fully captured the city of Tabqa and a strategic dam nearby from ISIL. The recapture of Tabqa leaves no other major ISIL-held urban settlements on the eastern road to Raqqa. US President Donald Trump on 9th authorized the direct shipment of arms to the YPG to facilitate the takeover of Raqqa, drawing intense opposition from Turkey. On 14th more than 1,500 rebels and their family members left the devastated district of Qaboun on the edge of Damascus, as the Syrian army and its allies continue to advance in areas in and around the capital.
Libya. Forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar on 8th launched an offensive to oust jihadist from their last two strongholds in Benghazi. Many jihadists found refuge in Al-Sabri and Souq al-Hout districts after the LNA drove them from the city’s western districts in March. While international attention is focused on the north of Libya, the South has felt out of radar but it remains a very unstable and conflicting area. Here an interview with Claudia Gazzini, Crisis Group’s Libya Senior Analyst, on the meeting between Sarraj and Haftar. Despite the UN embargo of arms purchase on Libya, the United Arab Emirates has deployed combat aircraft to eastern Libya for the forces led by Khalifa Haftar. In fact due to satellite images at least six "Archangel" aircraft were spotted in eastern Libya.
Tunisia. Tunisia's President Beji Caid Essebsi has ordered the army to protect the output of the country's main resources following a wave of protests over unemployment and worsening economic conditions. This is the first time that troops in Tunisia have been deployed to guard industrial installations.
Iraq. US-backed Iraqi forces have pushed deeper into the last pocket of Mosul controlled by the Islamic State. ISIL fighters have now been dislodged from all but a handful of districts in the western half of Mosul including the Old City, where the group is expected to make its last stand, taking advantage of narrow streets and its dense population. However, the fight against ISIS is not limited to Mosul, indeed on 11th Iraqi forces have launched a broad operation to root out ISIS fighters who have been harassing security forces in remote border areas in Anbar province.
Egypt. The Egyptian government is fighting against terrorist groups in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere in the country, but according to Foreign Affairs its war is falling.

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Mediterranean Security Update

5/7/2017

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Syria. On 1st May US-backed fighters cornered the Islamic State group in Tabqa. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters, were in control of all but a fifth of the city, while the near dam remains under IS control. However, Syrian rebels suspended their participation in the latest round of Russian-backed peace talks in Kazakhstan in protest at ongoing bombardments. The sides were in the Kazakh capital Astana for a new round of talks aiming at the creation of de-escalation zones upon which Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed.
Egypt. Three Egyptian police officers have been killed in a drive-by-shooting in Cairo by men armed with machine guns in the busy neighbourhood of Nasr City.
Russia. On the 2nd German Chancellor Angela Merkel has arrived in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks expected to focus on the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria. Merkel’s visit comes amid a highly confrontational situation.
Libya. Fayez al-Sarraj has met General Khalifa Haftar in the United Arab Emirates, in a rare meeting between the key figures. Although there was no official statement after the meeting, sources close to Haftar described it as positive. It could represent a turning-point in the war-torn Libya and the first step toward a united government in which both Sarraj and Haftar could play a key role. Libya has become a hot spot of instability, illegal human trafficking, terrorism, and also illicit weapons sales, as a recent report of Small Arms Survey demonstrates.
Algeria. On 4th Algerians voted for a new parliament but candidates have found a public disillusioned by an opaque political system and what many see as the government's failure to keep its promises. More than 12,000 candidates are competing for the 462 seats of the People’s National Assembly. The election was the first since Algerian politicians amended the country's constitutional law, giving more power to the legislature. The challenges facing Algeria today are numerous. Yet the major problems are socio-economic and closely related to the massive drop in oil revenues. Although the regime shows a remarkable degree of stability and continuity, the country has several economic and security problems.
Jordan. Jordan and the United States kicked off annual military exercises on 7th known as Eager Lion with about 7,400 troops from more than 20 nations taking part. The manoeuvres would include border security, cyber-defence, and "command and control" exercises to bolster coordination in response to threats including "terrorism". Jordan is a key U.S. ally in the Middle East and the drills represent a way to bolster their cooperation in light of the Syrian civil war.
Iraq. On 4th an Iraqi offensive to take back Mosul from ISIL gained new momentum with an armored division trying to advance into the city from the northern side; however the situation in Mosul is complex and far from over. ISIS has demonstrated to be very resilient since it has carried out terrorist attacks in Kirkuk and in al-Anbar province. Moreover, Iraqi insurgents groups are numerous and could provoke instability even after the liberation of Mosul.
Reading tip: Dario Cristiani, senior analyst at the Global Governance Institute, has recently published an interesting analysis on al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) you can find here.

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    Andrea Beccaro Blog

    My blog to share news related to International Politics and Security in the Mediterranean region. Moreover, the blog is also a tool to suggest books on terrorism, warfare, strategy, military history, political thought.

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