Peter R. Neumann, Michael L.R. Smith, The Strategy of Terrorism. How it works, and why it fails, Routledge, New York 2008
The book tackles the problem of terrorism from an unconventional way, because it is one of the few books to set out a comprehensive framework by which to understand terrorism as a strategy. That means that, contrary to most of the research on terrorism, the phenomenon is viewed as a rational strategy to fulfill political goals. The main purpose of this book is therefore to describe the military dynamics of terrorism and evaluate their effectiveness, as well as theorize upon.
The book define terrorism as the deliberate creation of a sense of fear, usually by the use or threat of use of symbolic acts of physical violence, to influence the political behavior of a given target group. (p.8) However, unlike much of what we consider conventional warfare the aim of a strategy of terrorism is not to kill or destroy but to break the spirit and create a sensation of fear within a target group. Terrorism, therefore, is a particular form of psychological warfare. (p.9) This is the main argument of the book that is elucidated in chapter 4 and 5.
Not only the book calls into question traditional wisdom about terrorism, but it also suggests that terrorism as a tactic can be employed by state or non-state actors without a different in the strategic meaning. As a consequence, according to the authors, terrorism does not connote a weaker side confronting a more powerful adversary, because all strategies are about maximizing one’s strengths and minimizing weakness. Likewise, the methods that we associate with terrorism, such as ambushes, sabotage, bomb attacks and assassination have all been established as adjuncts of conventional warfare. Thus, from the viewpoint of strategic theory, terrorism is simply a set of tactics, a form of fighting that can intrinsically be employed by any belligerent in any type of conflict. (p. 14)
The authors elucidate on the fact that strategic literature has used several terms to describe “unconventional warfare” such as LIC (Low Intensity Conflict, guerrilla, asymmetric warfare and so on), but in doing so individual wars have been de-contextualized from their historical, geographical and politically contingent settings and regarded as a uniform threat to be combated through an equally universalized set of strategic and operational principles. However, the authors use Clausewitz’s ideas about war and politics to suggest that the tactics one uses (conventional war or terrorism) are to be judged only to the extent that they help or hinder the attainment of objectives. (p. 28)
Chapter 3 delineates the modus operandi of strategic terrorism in three stages: 1) disorientation, terrorism seeks to alienate the authorities from their citizens by reducing the government to impotence in the eyes of the population and creating impression that those in power are unable to cope with a situation of evolving chaos; 2) target response that aims to induce the government to respond in a manner that is favorable to the insurgent cause; 3) gaining legitimacy serves to exploit the emotional impact of the violence to insert an alternative political message as well as broaden the terrorist’ support base, often through the media or political front organizations.

The first goal of strategic terrorism is not win “hearts and minds”, but it is to disorientate people through acts of symbolic violence. This kind of strategy has been successful where the target government was an occupying power. Insurgent groups who have chosen to employ strategic terrorism enjoy two important advantages when confronting an occupying power: 1) a foreign enemy allows for a less-discriminate targeting policy; 2) the group could attack both the occupied territories and the colonial metropolis, (p. 37) thus, broadening both the number of possible targets (and way of attacks) and its audience.
However, in spite of the horrific images of carnage, the statistics show that terrorist acts kill much fewer people than some so-called conventional strategies. Central to any strategy of terrorism, then, is the manipulation of the psychology of fear through a systematic campaign of violence, but people learn to cope with violence so repetition may not amplify the effect of disorientation but it may lead to a normalization or indifference that helps to explain why strategic terrorism often fails.

The book is very interesting and it takes a very different point of view on terrorism that helps to better understand the phenomenon. The strategic analysis applied to terrorism is original, intriguing as well as crucial in order to understand terrorism and overcome traditional shortcomings related to psychological, sociological and similar approaches.
However, throughout the book the authors often suggest that strategic terrorism is not the same as insurgency and guerrilla warfare, but they do not distinguish the phenomena and moreover, they correctly state that terrorism is about fear not “winning hearts and minds”, so terrorism does not aim at rousing the people, but then they say that without a popular support terrorism is doomed to fail. The latter is an embraceable idea but it could partially invalidate the notion of strategic terrorism.

L’Europa ormai deve affrontare una minaccia pervasiva e complessa, ovvero il terrorismo di stampo jihadista, recenti meno recenti fatti di cronaca in vari paesi europei continuano a mettere in luce il problema della radicalizzazione all’interno delle comunità islamiche presenti sul continente. Il fenomeno è purtroppo ben conosciuto, ma nel dibattito pubblico manca ancora una vera consapevolezza della sua dimensione e anche del grado di penetrazione in alcune comunità. Il libro di Stefano Piazza scritto con l'aiuto del giornalista del Corriere del Ticino Osvlado Migotto, Allarme Europa. Il fondamentalismo islamico nella nostra società (G-Risk, 2017) cerca appunto di colmare quella lacuna offrendo al lettore interessato un’analisi dettagliata, ma espressa con un linguaggio semplice, del problema della radicalizzazione sul continente europeo. Per fare ciò l’autore prende due strade. La prima è quella di costruire il libro prima introducendo e spiegando brevemente cosa siano il salafismo e il wahhabismo ovvero interpretazioni della religione islamica molto rigide che fanno da base dottrinale a quei gruppi protagonisti del terrorismo di oggi come i Fratelli Musulmani, Al Qaeda e ISIS. Poi Piazza, attraverso ben 16 capitoli, analizza i singoli casi nazionali in Europa: da quelli più tristemente noti come il Belgio, la Gran Bretagna o la Francia a quelli meno conosciuti e forse anche inaspettati come la Svizzera, la Danimarca o la Norvegia. Ovviamente spazio viene dedicato anche all’Italia ai suoi legami con il radicalismo balcanico e ai suoi pochi ma significativi esempi di foreign fighters, come quello di Giuliano Delnevo. La seconda strada che il libro intraprende è quella di mettere in evidenza come i casi nazionali siano in realtà collegati a un sistema internazionale di fondi i cui soldi arrivano da Paesi come il Qatar, l’Arabia Saudita e la Turchia. Senza questo ingente flusso di denaro molti dei centri islamici in Europa da cui sono usciti terroristi e foreign fighters non potrebbero esistere. Piazza mette così in luce sia il ruolo svolto da finanziatori più o meno occulti, ma con grande disponibilità finanziaria, sia quello di centri e moschee non autorizzate in cui la predicazione del salafismo più radicale la fa da padrone.

Il libro ha dunque il merito di ricostruire il fenomeno della radicalizzazione in Europa, darne un’idea precisa e purtroppo anche poco rassicurante alla luce dei numerosi casi che ricostruisce e dei legami internazionali da cui trae origine. Il libro è ricco di biografie e schede di approfondimento per facilitare la lettura anche ai meno esperti ed è inoltre arricchito da tre corpose interviste al politologo americano ed esperto di strategia Edward Luttwak, all’ex premier italiano Massimo D’Alema e Saïda Keller-Messahli leader del “Forum per l’Islam Progressista in Svizzera”.

Per chi volesse approfondire segnalo anche un mio articolo del 2017 in cui rifletto proprio partendo dal libro di Piazza sul problema del radicalismo in Europa.

 Iraq. Basra has been rocked by protests with demonstrators setting ablaze government buildings, the Iranian consulate, and the offices of pro-Tehran militias and political parties. Anger flared after the hospitalisation of 30,000 people who drank polluted water that highlights the poor conditions of the oil-rich region. On 9 September, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed they had launched deadly missile strikes against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq the previous day. They also confirmed that their drone division was involved. This operation corroborates the increasing Iranian influence in Iraq. Moreover, on 10 evening the Iranian army has advanced nearly 20 kilometers into Iraqi Kurdistan region and controlled the strategic Surin mountain, north of Sulaymaniyah province, under the pretext of chasing Iranian Kurdish armed opposition stationed in the Iraqi border areas with Iran. On 12 a suicide attacks near Tikrit has killed at least three people and wounded almost a dozen on a highway restaurant popular with Iraqi security forces.

Libya. On 10 September, armed men stormed the headquarters of Libya’s National Oil Company in Tripoli, engaging guards in a deadly gun battle with at least one large blast going off in an apparent suicide attack. At least two of the company’s staff were killed and 10 wounded. The same day Italian Foreign Minister Enzo Moavero Milanese held talks with General Khalifa Haftar in the eastern city of Benghazi in an attempt to stabilise Libya. It has been reported that the two men had a long and cordial conversation relaunching Libya’s close relationship with Italy. The ministry said Haftar “expressed his appreciation for Italy’s foreign policy, which Libya can’t do without”. However the situation in the country remains volatile: on 12 the only working airport in Libya’s capital, which had only reopened on 7 following clashes between rival militias, came under rocket fire and has diverted flights. On 13 the UN Security Council has extended the mandate for the UNSMIL mission in Libya by another year, but wisely did not endorse a December 10 date for elections that were agreed to in a Paris meeting four months ago. France stuck to its position pushing for elections in Libya by the end of the year after Italy and the UN backed government in Tripoli sowed doubts on the electoral calendar, citing a worsening security situation. The council unanimously adopted a British-drafted resolution that called for parliamentary and presidential elections to be held “as soon as possible, provided the necessary security, technical, legislative and political conditions are in place”.

Egypt. On 11 September Egyptian security forces killed 11 suspected jihadists in the Sinai Peninsula as they press a campaign against Islamist militants in the area. The military launched a sweeping operation in February focused on the Sinai in eastern Egypt aimed at wiping out jihadists, including from the Islamic State group, who have been waging a bloody insurgency.

Syria. On 10 September Syrian government forces have pounded rebel-held areas in northwest Syria in a second day of heavy bombardment, as Turkey sent more troops to the region. The day after Islamic State group militants have killed 21 Syrian regime fighters in an ambush in southern province of Suweida, the attack came as US-backed forces advanced against the militants on the border with Iraq. State news agency SANA reported heavy clashes with IS in the area, which lies some 100 kilometers southeast of Damascus, adding that regime aircraft and artillery "targeted hideouts and positions" held by the group. On 13 Kurdish fighters in northern Syria detained an alleged Italian member of the Islamic State group as he was trying to flee across the border to Turkey. "On August 27, a mercenary called Semir Bogana was captured as a result of a special operation conducted by our Anti-Terror Units, when he was trying to flee to Turkey," said the YPG. It said Bogana - an Italian citizen known also as Abu Hureyre al-Muhajir or Abu Abdullah al-Muhajir - was responsible for weapons shipments to IS. Here some more information on the problem of Italian foreign fighters by ISPI.

Iraq. On 3 September Iraq’s newly elected parliament held its first session. The Sadr-Abadi alliance claimed it had a majority of the seats, which was contested by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who formed an alliance with militia commander Hadi al-Ameri. Neither alliance included the two main Kurdish parties that with their combined 43 seats play a key role. Also the security situation in the South remains volatile since deadly clashes continued in Basra. At least six people were killed and 12 injured in violent demonstrations near a provincial government building when protesters stormed the office and set it alight. On 4 September protesters stormed the Iranian consulate in Basra, indicating a strife between Iraqi Shiites and their Iranian “ally”. The Carnegie Middle East Center published a paper in order to highlight what the Iraqi government should do to address the public anger that started this summer. Even the North of the country has been the target of a series of attacks. On 8 September rockets have struck the headquarters of two Iranian Kurdish opposition parties (Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) and the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI)) in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, with reports saying at least 11 people have been killed and 50 others wounded.

Libya. This week the situation in Libya has deteriorated significantly. While the fighting in the capital Tripoli have continued, on 2 September fighting renewed in Libya’s eastern city of Derna leaving 11 killed and 19 injured fighters from forces under Khalifa Haftar’s command. Renewed clashes between rival armed groups in Tripoli have plunged Libya in yet deeper chaos. On August 27, fierce fighting erupted in the capital’s southern districts after the Seventh Brigade, an armed group based in Tarhouna launched a surprise offensive against rival militias. The Seventh Brigade has since assumed control of the airport. Joined by fighters from the Misrata and Zintan regions, the group is targeting four armed brigades inside Tripoli which it accuses of usurping power and pursuing its interests at the expense of the Libyan state. In order to better understand the local situation and the alliances of the different militias this report from Small Arms Survey is a very important reading. On 5 September, rival militia factions have agreed a ceasefire, the United Nations says. However, it should be noted that last week, a ceasefire deal held for a few hours.

Egypt. Italy’s oil and gas company Eni has announced the discovery of a new natural gas field in the East Obayed concession area in the Western Desert of Egypt. The multinational company added that the well had been opened for production, achieving 25 mmscfd (million standard cubic feet per day), “confirming the potential of the East Obayed Concession.” Eni said it produces 55,000 barrels of oil per day from the Western Desert through its operating company AGIBA, which it owns jointly with the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation.

Syria. On 1 September a car bomb attack in Azaz, a rebel-held town near Syria’s border with Turkey, has killed at least one person and wounded several others. On 5 Syrian air strikes pounded targets in the last rebel-held province of Idlib after a hiatus of over three weeks without air strikes in the area. Idlib is the last major bastion of the rebel groups who have been trying to oust Assad since the start of the war in 2011. His forces are amassing around the province of Idlib, presumably in preparation for the assault.

Algeria. On 4 September three Algerian soldiers have been killed and three others wounded in a clash with Islamist militants in western Algeria. Two militants, including the chieftain of the group, were also killed. Local authorities said the group was responsible for the May 22 murder of two imams, aged 64 and 67, at the mosque in Oued Sebaa, another town in the region.

Russia Focus
Russia is worried about the Libyan situation in Tripoli and has pushed Libyan militias to a ceasefire. Meanwhile it has been joining the list of nations intent on establishing their foothold in the Red Sea. In a meeting with Eritrean leaders on August 31, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced plans to establish a “logistics center” at a port in the East African nation. Moscow didn’t specify the location or the timetable of the project but said it was aimed at boosting bilateral trade and infrastructural investment between the two nations. In March, Lavrov undertook a week-long tour of Africa, visiting Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe. During his visit, he signed agreements to establish economic zones, explore opportunities in accessing minerals including diamonds and platinum, and enhance military and technical cooperation.

On Friday 7 September I will present a paper titled “Russia in the Mediterranean Region: A Critical Assessment” at the SISP congress in Turin, here the complete program of this important event.

In the wake of the so called Arab Spring the geopolitical order of the entire Mediterranean area has deeply changed both because old regimes have collapsed (Tunisia, Libya, Egypt) and because the US has embarked on a strategy of military and political retreat from the region. This process spurred several international actors to take action, mainly in Syria, and to try setting their own political agenda. In this framework Russia has been able to gain a key military, political and diplomatic position. The paper will seek to evaluate the new Russian position in the Mediterranean area looking at two different dimensions. First of all, from a geopolitical point of view the Russian involvement in Syria is both a continuation of an old geopolitical Russian problem, i.e. the need for a warm sea, and just an element of a more complex and structured geopolitical approach that includes Russian involvement in Libya and Egypt. As a consequence, Russia has been able to strengthen its position in the Mediterranean area in a way not seen since the end of the Cold War. Second, the paper takes critically into account the notion of “hybrid warfare” showing how it is a misleading concept, it is not useful to understand Russian military strategy and has several commonalities with Western military strategy.
In summary Russia seems to have followed a balanced, practical, and pragmatic approach in the Mediterranean region, working with all players and treating them as equal competitors. This is true in Libya where Moscow despite its support to Haftar has never sidelined Sarraj and in Syria where Russia has established contacts with the different groups of the Syrian opposition.

September 7: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will visit Iran, on a trip expected to include a three-way summit with Russian and Iranian leaders on Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Erdoğan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani met in April in Ankara, where they discussed developments in Syria. The meeting comes at a time where the economies and currencies of Turkey and Iran continue to be battered.

September 23: Iran will send its oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, to a meeting in Algeria of the monitoring committee overseeing OPEC’s supply accord with Russia and other allies, in another bid to preserve the sanctions-hit country’s crude market share. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet just six weeks before US sanctions that could shut in 1 million barrels per day or more of Iran’s crude sales are scheduled to take effect November 5.

September 30: The Parliament of Macedonia will vote on a referendum on NATO and EU membership bids and on its agreement with Greece on the country’s name. In June, NATO sent an invitation to Macedonia to begin accession talks with the alliance, following a landmark accord with Greece over the former Yugoslav republic’s name. For years, Greece refused to accept the country’s name, and blocked the country’s EU and NATO membership bids. After a period of political crisis, the government of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, elected in 2017, pushed for an agreement with Greece to solve the name dispute and the two sides have agreed on the name of Republic of North Macedonia.

September 30: The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, which voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence last year in a referendum rejected by Baghdad, will hold an election on September 30. The vote should elect both a parliament and a president for Kurdish regions which gained self-rule in 1991, when a U.S-led coalition forced Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi army to withdraw from them in the wake of his eight-month occupation of Kuwait.

More at https://theglobalobservatory.org/2018/08/key-global-events-to-watch-september-2018/

Syria. The situation in Syria continue to be very volatile and likely it will change during September when a new military operations is expected. Indeed, the Syrian regime is planning a phased offensive on Idlib, the last rebel stronghold in the country, with its attack targeting the south and west first. Taking those areas would bring Assad close to regaining control over major link roads running from Aleppo to Hama and Latakia, two of Syria’s most important pre-war roads. Meanwhile, regime ally Russia has sent warships to the Mediterranean off the coast of Syria supposedly in preparation for the assault.